Holy Polling, Batman!

As you would expect 14 months out from the next Presidential election, news services and polling organizations are spitting out updated data seemingly on an hourly basis.  Is your candidate behind in the polling?  Wait ten minutes, there’s some data out there to give you hope.  Your candidate’s percentage has gone down?  Well take a closer look, his opponent’s percentage might have gone down as well.  There is something for everyone to hang their hat on out there.

Watching the polls feeds the sports side of my personality.  There is a game here with plenty of teams playing, and lord knows we all want our own guys to win.  On the Republican side, I sense that Giuliani’s going to be the man - although I’d love to see Romney get the nod, since he’s clearly the most beatable of the Thompson-Giuliani-Romney triumvirate. 

And I’ve made me feelings clear on a Hillary Clinton candidacy for President, so I’m hoping that Obama or Edwards makes a run and keeps this race competitive and prevents an absolute nightmare scenario for the Democrats.

But you know what?  As much fun as the polls are to look at, the national ones don’t mean squat.

Obama is gaining on Clinton amongst 30-40 year olds nationwide?  I DON’T CARE.

Clinton stretched out her lead on Edwards nationally?  I DON’T CARE.

Honestly, the only polls that matter right now for the Dems are the polls for Iowa and New Hampshire.  Nothing else matters - if Hillary wins either the Iowa caucus or the New Hampshire primary, this thing is probably over.  She will be picking out VP candidates and new linens for the West Wing by February.  There’s an outside shot that Obama and Edwards could join forces and make a dent in South Carolina, but I suspect the Clinton wave will be too big to overcome.

So keep an eye on Iowa and New Hampshire…that’s all that matters for the Dems right now.

Odds & Ends

A couple things I was thinking about this morning.

• Michael Vick just has to be on Barry Bonds Christmas card list this year.  Passing Hank helped alleviate the pressure a bit, but Vick’s situation is the red meat that the pit bulls at ESPN need to switch their focus off Bonds for a while.  It will probably be a short reprieve, cause when Vick disappears to do a bit of prison time, they’ll be back on Bonds.
• Speaking of Vick, the KNBR morning show had an interesting discussion of the overkill on the coverage of Michael Vick.  Is he, similar to Bonds, getting way too much heat for the crimes he’s allegedly committed?  They brought up the case of Leonard Little,  a current Rams player who pleaded guilty to a count of involuntary manslaughter in 1998, the result of driving intoxicated and causing a fatal traffic collision.  Subsequently, he has had additional brushes with the law for drunken driving.  But this guy is not being, nor has he ever been, villified a la Vick.  Simple answer is that Vick’s public recognition level is much higher than a guy like Leonard Little.  He’s a high profile quarterback with a huge Nike endorsement.  There’s clearly a cultural aspect to this as well, as dogfighting seems to be more accepted amongst minorities in general, and particularly in the south.  I’m sure that magnifies the distaste for a great deal of white Americans.  Add to that America’s love affair with their dogs - “Man’s Best Friend”, right?   What does this all mean?  Well, he may have been better off killing a guy in a bar fight than being involved in a dogfighting ring.  I don’t expect we’ll be seeing Michael Vick back in the NFL anytime soon.
• The socially liberal side of me had a small tinge of disgust when Jose Padilla was found guilty on all charges yesterday.  I have my doubts that he was mentally fit to stand trial, considering the horrific amount of torture he was dealt out by the United States government.  But a greater part of my conscience is pleased about two things - one, that the evidence was pretty clear of this man’s guilt, and his intention to commit terrorist activities.  And two, that the justice system was employed, Padilla received counsel, and was able to have his case heard before a jury, as every American should be allowed.  This is solid proof that our system of justice does not have to be altered to be effective.  Still, the man (a United States citizen) has received punishment clearly in excess of that our system allows, and I hope that is taken into consideration when he is sentenced.

The Hillary Effect

Spend any significant time hanging out at DailyKos and you will see many diaries extolling the virtues of someone’s preferred candidate or ripping “the other guy” for his or her vote on the war or bankruptcy bill.  Honestly, this is one of the things I love about Democrats in general and DailyKos specifically - every issue is vigorously debated and analyzed.  What Republicans see as a sign of weakness and ineptitude is actually a closer adherence to the principals this country was founded on.  Very rarely will you see Democrats in lockstep - the Cheney administration and perhaps Joe Lieberman being the obvious exceptions.

As the netroots “effect” increases (and make no mistake, the turnout of the top-tier candidates at YearlyKos last weekend shows said effect), candidates and their supporters are going to need to be fluently educated on the issues that progressives care about.  Mouth off about Obama’s inexperience?  Better be ready to defend Hillary’s vote on the bankruptcy bill, or Edward’s decision to vote for the Patriot Act.

This is not a bad thing - in fact, it’s a very, very, very good thing (is that enough “very”’s?)  To be honest, I am still undecided at this point on my candidate of choice - I will say that the Dems are fielding a damn strong group. 

Back to my point, I’ve been enjoying this multitude of diaries and the back-and-forth it brings.  Is Barack Obama too green to handle the foreign policy rigors of the office?  Can John Edwards and Hillary Clinton sufficiently explain their votes relating to the mess we have currently in Iraq?  When will Joe Biden realize that nobody likes a shill for the credit card companies?

Through it all, I’m amazed that the supporters of Hillary Clinton rarely address the million-pound gorilla in the room.  My question is this - how do you expect the Democratic party to support Hillary, when her mere presence at the top of the ticket will bring out a much more energized Republican base than we would see otherwise?  In effect, her nomination will make things harder for our national and local candidates.

Sorry, my belief is that a Hillary nomination brings along plenty of anti-immigrant, anti-gay marriage, and anti-gun control intitiatives nationwide.  It probably stems the tide of ‘06 and may even reverse many of the gains that have been made. 

Now, based strictly on her voting record, I understand that Hillary pencils out as perhaps the most liberal candidate we’ll see in primary season.  She’s clearly been one of the best debate performers, and may well make a damn good President.  But at what cost? 

If Hillary supporters can convince me this is not the case, that the apparent ambivalence of Republicans nationwide will continue even during a Hillary candidacy,  I’ll happily consider voting for her in both the primary and general election next year.  My sense is, it’s an unanswerable question - because the truth of the answer will pit Hillary’s supporters against themselves.  Are they doing what’s best for the Democratic party, or what’s best for Hillary?

The Wait is Over - Will the Anger Subside?

Hank Aaron’s 30-odd year old record went down last night, and it’s a good thing the ball went into the bleachers.  If it had gone into the cove, we could have witnessed the first drowning death at a Major League Baseball game. 

As always, ESPN continues to stir the steroid pot.  Would it have been too much for this one night for this bloated shell of a formerly great network to appreciate the moment?  Instead, what did I hear on ESPN radio last night after the game?  First, an interview with Pedro Gomez, who summarily ripped Bonds for about 10 minutes, and then Lance Williams, a co-author of the book “Game of Shadows”.  You can imagine the direction of that conversation.  And once again, Giants fans in general were ridiculed for their support of Bonds during his chase of Hammerin’ Hank. 

It’s a strange thing, being a Giants fan during the latter stages of the Bonds era.  Who knew that a baseball player could make you question your own morality, your common sense?  At least for me, Bonds has done exactly that.  And I’d venture to say that this introspection has allowed your common Giants fans to have a better intellectual argument on this issue than most of the talking heads at ESPN.

First off, let’s get this out of the way - it takes a complete lack of rational thought to marginalize Giants fans over their support of Barry Bonds.  Let’s look at the facts here - we are talking about a player in his 15th season with the same franchise, a player who was clearly one of the greatest offensive forces the league has ever seen, and a player whose presence greatly helped prevent this franchise from moving to Tampa Bay.  This same player practically carried this team to the World Series in 2002, a place they had not gone in 13 years.

Take the name off the player, place him in any other major league city and see what kind of response he gets as he heads towards 755.

Secondly, before I will make Bonds the scapegoat for the entire steroids era, I need to know exactly what he was taking, how long he took it, and how much of the competition was doing the same.  As most people know, MLB was not testing for steroids prior to 2003, so baseball was pretty much the Wild West when it came to performance enhancing drugs.  And you didn’t have to look like Lou Ferrigno to be on the juice.  Since PED’s can assist an athlete in everything from sheer strength to recovery time, an intellectually honest person would have to look at EVERY player with the same suspicious eye that is being cast on Barry Bonds.  Did Greg Maddux juice?  Did Tom Glavine?  Did Cal Ripken and Tony Gwynn, the two most recent additions to the Hall of Fame?

Most non-Bonds fans will say “Absolutely not!  Look at their bodies!”.  But body type doesn’t mean a damn thing - Rafael Palmeiro was never considered a “cut” athlete.  The list of players that have been suspended for steroid use range from extremely fit to sloppy. 

Like it or not, Bonds has not failed a drug test since the league imposed testing in 2003 - and as weak as the testing policy is (the new policy effective in 2005), every player has to be tested at least one time during the season.  And don’t believe for a second that Bud Selig wouldn’t love to throw Bonds to the wolves if he tested positive.  It’s pretty clear how he feels about Bonds at this point.

So having ingested this information, I’m completely comfortable in my decision to not just enjoy, but wow, actually ROOT for Barry Bonds to pass Aaron for the title of Home Run King.  For a good portion of the naysayers, their personal dislike of Bonds clearly clouds their thinking - he’s a jerk, he’s a bad guy, yes HE is the one we can pin all the blame on.  Talk about an emotional reaction to a complicated issue. 

So Giants fans, join me in being completely comfortable with the idea of Bonds passing Aaron.  People who know baseball, now and 100 years from now will evaluate the record in the context of the era it occurred.  Same as we do with Ruth, same as we do with Aaron, same as we will do endlessly in the future. 

Yes, Paris Hilton is Hot

Every married man has been there.  Sitting on the couch, minding your own business, when Paris Hilton’s mug shows up on the screen.  Or you are at dinner with some friends, and her name comes up in the conversation.  You know it’s coming…you can probably almost time it to the second.

 ”Do you think Paris Hilton is attractive?”

Welcome to hell.  This question is the modern equivalent to the “Does this dress make me look fat?” question your Dad had to answer back in the day.  And the proper answer?

“No, absolutely not.  She’s way too skinny.”

Well done, Sport.  You are now off the hook until Lindsay Lohan’s in the news again. 

But the fact is, you lied.  Yep, no doubt about it…you may not even believe you lied, but you lied.  Thing is, your regular, everyday, non-famous female friends and relatives have brainwashed you to believe that Paris (and any other attractive female celebrity that drinks or has a healthy libido) makes Glenn Close look like Salma Hayek. 

It’s time to tell the truth.  Paris Hilton is hot.  Not just moderately hot, she’s incredibly hot.  Were she not a celebrity and showed up at your local watering hole, you’d be telling all your guy friends about the absolute stunning knockout you ran into at the pub the other night.  And you’d have a couple years worth of visual material for your…uh…quiet time.

So please, stop lying about it - strike a blow for truth and honesty.  Tell your wives and girlfriends that Paris Hilton is smoking hot.